Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 0.016702 0.018900 0.021281 0.024053 0.027190 0.030633 0.034699
2025-09-14 0.012693 0.015593 0.019001 0.023304 0.028597 0.034902 0.042994
2025-09-21 0.010616 0.013792 0.017739 0.023008 0.029868 0.038512 0.050260
2025-09-28 0.008987 0.012222 0.016428 0.022306 0.030323 0.040904 0.055974
2025-10-05 0.008299 0.011745 0.016407 0.023186 0.032817 0.046051 0.065692
2025-10-12 0.007642 0.011207 0.016204 0.023733 0.034827 0.050633 0.074975
2025-10-19 0.007112 0.010776 0.016078 0.024333 0.036908 0.055428 0.084932
2025-10-26 0.006469 0.010099 0.015511 0.024193 0.037834 0.058546 0.092593
2025-11-02 0.005953 0.009556 0.015082 0.024198 0.038939 0.061973 0.100967
2025-11-09 0.005406 0.008909 0.014421 0.023761 0.039277 0.064186 0.107534
2025-11-16 0.005076 0.008578 0.014228 0.024044 0.040781 0.068350 0.117616
2025-11-23 0.004692 0.008118 0.013779 0.023852 0.041453 0.071166 0.125615
2025-11-30 0.004465 0.007914 0.013749 0.024389 0.043448 0.076431 0.138437
2025-12-07 0.004037 0.007322 0.013007 0.023617 0.043083 0.077580 0.144041
2025-12-14 0.003731 0.006918 0.012557 0.023318 0.043519 0.080153 0.152421
2025-12-21 0.003396 0.006430 0.011914 0.022606 0.043126 0.081163 0.157921
2025-12-28 0.003315 0.006410 0.012122 0.023498 0.045814 0.088094 0.175364
2026-01-04 0.003194 0.006302 0.012155 0.024053 0.047889 0.094014 0.191316
2026-01-11 0.003088 0.006213 0.012215 0.024661 0.050111 0.100382 0.208703
2026-01-18 0.002902 0.005950 0.011914 0.024519 0.050810 0.103771 0.220239
2026-01-25 0.002747 0.005737 0.011695 0.024524 0.051800 0.107815 0.233478
2026-02-01 0.002558 0.005438 0.011277 0.024081 0.051813 0.109832 0.242521
2026-02-08 0.002456 0.005313 0.011209 0.024369 0.053402 0.115274 0.259512